BJP will find it tougher to push contentious Bills, especially those that would require Constitutional amendments, without the support of its allies and cooperation from the Opposition.
Indications are that the DMK combine will win more seats than the AIADMK and BJP, but is facing a tough fight in about half a dozen from the rest, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy of the electoral contest in Tamil Nadu.
An interesting multi-cornered contest is on the cards for the urban local body elections in Tamil Nadu scheduled for February 19 with opposition parties, which were with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam till a few days ago, set to take on the ruling DMK banking on their respective party's own strength.
Udhayanidhi's 'untimely' elevation as deputy CM may be used against the party, for critics to argue that the DMK's 'first family's is not concerned about anything else but their clan's welfare. If packaged and delivered properly, some of the sting may stick at election time, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy.
'Of equal importance was the AIADMK's precarious assembly membership, what with 11 of its MLAs including deputy chief minister OPS facing court cases for disqualification and by-elections due in another 21. To shore up the party's numbers for anticipated eventuality on the 11-MLAs' front, the AIADMK leadership in general and chief minister EPS in particular, were even more focussed on assembly seats than LS seats, just now,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Inscrutable have been the ways of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa. She is a political strategist and tactician rolled into one that her unpredictable ways have won the day for her - mostly, says N Sathiya Moorthy
As proof of the potential outcome, AIADMK sources pointed to the election of TDP's C M Ramesh to the prestigious PAC, which was enabled by the Opposition voting for him.
AIADMK insiders see the very idea of an NDA conclave as a measure of the BJP's current electoral assessment, stemming from relative weakness in 2024 compared to 2014 and 2019. In their reckoning, the BJP now needs allies more than the other way round, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Vijay has a lot of young and middle-aged women fans, but as voters, they are possibly now with the DMK, or remain with the AIADMK. Recapturing this constituency would have helped Vijay's political launch and the GOAT script and dialogues could have gone a long way in helping out. But the kind of script and screenplay and the unusually and equally unnecessary long run-time (3 hours, 3 minutes) that GOAT offers takes the film experience over the heads of those that are not familiar with secret agents and uranium theft in Tamil cinema, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The BJP often forgets that in Dravidian Tamil Nadu, the voter does not mix religion, which is personal, and politics that is in the public sphere, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
'When you weigh anti-incumbency against the Centre against anti-incumbency against the state, anti-incumbency against the Centre will triumph as this is a parliamentary election.'
Where do Vijay and his TVK expect to get their votes from? Vijay has a huge fan following among women, but will they automatically become his voters like they had done for MGR's AIADMK, asks N Sathiya Moorthy.
If the idea was to garner AIADMK votes with or without the three faction leaders after the party broke ties with the NDA, it may not work after all, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Over the last five days, Modi visited all of south, held roadshows, made an aggressive bid for his party, and took on the rivals with full gusto, especially the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu, and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi in Telangana that was in power for 10 years.
But the question before the leadership will be whether to retain the BJP alliance or dump it, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
A tweet by O Panneerselvam, leader of the Puratchi Thalaivi faction of All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, on a possible alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party after the declaration of civic polls kicked up a storm on Saturday.
The work on seat sharing with other allies will begin from Thursday, he told reporters.
Will the AIADMK acknowledge the role of CAA and the anti-CAA protests, both inside the state and outside, as among the causes for the current electoral reversal, as many in the party now want? It is unlikely to be so, but then the pressure will increase on the leadership to reassess the BJP alliance at one level and the 'blind support' for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's controversial policies on the other, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'In Tamil Nadu we head the NDA, the BJP is a junior partner.' 'As long as they know that, all will be well.'
Constituencies that are going to the polls in the first phase, slated for April 19, have just 19 days for campaigning. Contrast that with those going to polls in the 7th phase, notes N Sathiya Moorthy.
In the video clip, Shah can be seen talking to Soundararajan in an animated manner while gesturing with his finger.
The DMK chief said it was a 'resounding victory' given to his party led alliance by the people of Tamil Nadu.
'Intense rivalry between the AIADMK and the DMK was standing in the way of the development of the state.'
Always interesting, DMK politics is going to get even more absorbing in the days to come, predicts Aditi Phadnis.
Though both the Dravidian majors are facing questions on family politics, the ruling party especially finds itself in the dock since its late leader J Jayalalithaa had often used it to target her party's archrival DMK.
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam President M K Stalin will try his luck once again from Kolathur constituency in Chennai in the April 6 Tamil Nadu assembly elections while his son Udhayanidhi will make his electoral debut by contesting from the Chepauk-Triplicane segment in the metropolis.
The DMK combine has won 37 of the 38 LS constituencies in Tamil Nadu, and bagged 13 of the 22 assembly bypolls. What swept away the AIADMK-BJP alliance in the southern state was not dravidian ideology but job loss and graft bias, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
By aligning with the BJP, even if they were arm-twisted into doing so, the AIADMK leadership has yielded their political space in the state to the aunt-nephew duo of Sasikala-Dinakaran, and the parliamentary election to the DMK-Congress combine, says A Ganesh Nadar.
The parties which gave chief ministers and sent scores of MPs to Parliament, drew a blank this time.
Though EPS has sworn peace for now, or so it seems, his camp is said to be considering the possibility of calling an early meeting of the party's general council, to get a mandate in his favour before things went out of control. Ground-level indications are that OPS had lost his limited base, which alone had forced him to patch up with the other, reportedly at the instance of the BJP ally at the Centre, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
There is an impression within the Tamil Nadu BJP -- although no one is airing it -- that over-exposure for Narendra Modi over the past months may work against party candidates, as they have triggered a near-continuous social media debate on his achievements and failures, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Already, there is a feeling even within the BJP's AIADMK ally that the BJP is overdoing things on the ED/I-T front, as corruption is not an election issue in the state -- as long as the people are otherwise not excessively unhappy with the governing party, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Even as the unity moves between the two AIADMK factions seem to be going nowhere, former chief minister O Panneerselvam is working on a grand alliance of other Opposition parties, reports R Rajagopalan.
There are states that could swing either way and change the results of the 2024 general election.
'Modi is trying avenues to convince people why they should vote for the BJP.'
Virtually friendless in Tamil Nadu, Congress on Monday said it would be going it alone in the state in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.
Annamalai has faced criticism for the breakup between the AIADMK and the BJP, but BJP leaders say 'he attracts youth, who needs change'.
The ruling party's decision to serve 'disqualification' notice to three party MLAs when polling for four more assembly by-elections are due for May 19 may have been taken to keep the flock together post-results, rather than seek to lose more than already, but it has sent out alarming signals in a state ruled till recently by an Iron Lady, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The AIADMK bagged 134 seats as counting of votes was taken up for 232 of the 234 assembly constituencies. Polling in two constituencies has been postponed to May 23.
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam will contest 182 of 234 seats in the May 8 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, party supremo Jayalalithaa announced in Chennai Friday.
